Despite significant investments and promises, quantum computers have yet to demonstrate practical utility, with experts voicing skepticism about their capabilities.
New Delhi, India Jul 1, 2026 ALN: To this day, we have yet to see a quantum computer conclusively perform a single useful task. Existing machines are simply too small and error-ridden to solve commercially relevant problems. That hasn’t stopped Donald Trump’s science adviser from promising a “quantum computer powerful enough for scientific discovery by 2028” and Trump from issuing a new executive order to speed up the US quantum computing industry in its competition with China.
Companies drive the hype, too. In June, Microsoft announced a new quantum computing chip named Majorana 2, claiming it was a hardware advancement that accelerates its timeline to a “scalable, practical quantum computer” by 2029. However, independent experts swiftly criticized the announcement. “This is complete codswallop,” Henry Legg, a physicist from the University of St. Andrews and a longtime Microsoft critic, stated.
Legg recently published a paper in Nature criticizing Microsoft’s quantum claims from a year ago, pointing to major discrepancies between Microsoft’s papers and press releases. As the arguments continue to roil, the arc of quantum computing’s progress can seem chaotic, alternating between hyped announcements from companies and subsequent critiques from academic researchers.
Researchers have made genuine progress in quantum computing, but it has largely been incremental and too esoteric to immediately capture the public’s imagination. Moreover, it is all very expensive. Over the last decade, major players like Google, IBM, Amazon, Microsoft, and various governments have poured billions into quantum computing development.
Proponents predict that the nology will lead to discoveries in medicine, as well as advances in materials science and machine learning. National security experts frame its development as a new Cold War competition between the US and China.
The promise of quantum computing lies in its ability to excel at a fundamentally different type of math than classical computers. Instead of using bits, a quantum computer’s fundamental unit of information is the qubit. Qubits represent information as probabilities rather than definitive states. This makes them more suited for simulating complex processes, like molecular interactions.
However, quantum computers are unlikely to be effective for classical computing tasks such as email or word processing. Companies are experimenting with various materials to create qubits, including neutral atoms, ions, and superconducting circuits. Google and IBM utilize superconducting circuits, while other companies explore different approaches.
Proponents believe quantum computers could solve problems that today’s supercomputers struggle with. Theoretical research suggests they should be able to simulate molecules far more easily than classical computers, potentially aiding in the development of new battery materials or medicines.
Some envision quantum computers as tools for cyberattacks. In 1994, computer scientist Peter Shor developed a quantum algorithm for factoring prime numbers, which could break RSA encryption. This potential has spurred the development of post-quantum cryptography, although experts argue that the anticipation of quantum computing’s decryption capabilities may have rendered this application obsolete.
Current quantum computers, like Google’s Willow, are too primitive to break RSA encryption or implement drug molecule simulations. The vision is to build scaled-up machines that can perform these tasks, likely as specialized data centers or supercomputers accessed via the cloud.
However, the path to these applications is not straightforward, and researchers are still grappling with defining their purpose. In June, IBM announced plans to invest over $10 billion into quantum computing over the next five years, aiming to build a larger-scale quantum computer by 2029. This investment aligns with public funding initiatives, including a $2 billion infusion from the Trump administration to nine quantum computing companies.
Similar cycles of hype and skepticism have played out throughout quantum computing’s history. Companies announce breakthroughs, independent researchers call out exaggerations, and investors continue to pour money into the industry. While significant advancements are being made, the reality remains that quantum computers have yet to demonstrate their promised utility.
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