SNP Poised for Majority in Scotland Amid Polling Shift Post-Burnham's Premiership

London, United Kingdom Aug 13, 2026 ALN: THE SNP would win a comfortable majority in Scotland if a snap Westminster General Election was called tomorrow, The National can reveal.

Research has found that 29% of voters in Scotland would back the SNP, while only 18% of voters would cast their ballot for Scottish Labour. According to Professor John Curtice, this would see the SNP return 30 MPs out of the 57 available constituencies. Meanwhile, Scottish Labour would lose 21 MPs and return only 16 to Westminster. At the 2024 General Election under Keir Starmer's leadership, Labour won 37 seats, while the SNP returned nine MPs.

The SNP said the polling was “confirmation of strong support” for the party under First Minister John Swinney’s leadership, adding that Scottish Labour will continue to suffer at the ballot box if it refuses to engage on Scottish independence. It is the first time polling has been undertaken in Scotland on Westminster voting intentions since Andy Burnham became Prime Minister.

In his first visit to Scotland, Burnham told Swinney that an independence referendum is "off limits". The implications of this statement are significant, as it suggests a potential hardening of Labour's stance on Scottish independence under Burnham's leadership, which may further alienate Scottish voters who favor independence. Recent polling shows that a majority of Scots want to leave the Union, indicating a growing divide between the desires of the Scottish electorate and the positions held by the UK’s major political parties.

Polling conducted by Find Out Now for The National of 1020 Scottish adults between August 4 and August 10 asked voters: "If a general election was called tomorrow, how would you vote?" The survey also revealed that despite polling at 17%, Reform UK wouldn’t win any of Scotland’s 57 Westminster constituencies. The Scottish Tories, who currently have six MPs after winning the Aberdeen South by-election, would drop back to five MPs with only 10% of the vote. The Scottish LibDems and Scottish Greens also saw 10% of voters back them, but while the LibDems would retain their six MPs, the Scottish Greens would not return any.

The survey also found that the SNP has its highest support – 35% – from those aged 30-39 and 40-54. This demographic trend is noteworthy as it reflects a shift in political allegiance among younger and middle-aged voters who may be more inclined to support progressive policies and the movement for Scottish independence. The Scottish Greens have the highest support among younger voters, with 32% of 18-29 year olds saying they would vote for the party at the Westminster level. This could indicate a growing environmental consciousness among younger Scots, aligning with the Greens' platform.

Scottish Labour’s highest support comes from those aged 75 and above, with 26% of that age group saying they would vote for the party. This demographic is traditionally more conservative and may reflect Labour's historical roots and its past dominance in Scottish politics. However, the party's inability to connect with younger voters raises concerns about its long-term viability and relevance in a rapidly changing political landscape.

The research also found that more than half of voters who backed Scottish Labour at the General Election in 2024 would back other parties. Only 48% would cast their ballot for Scottish Labour again if a snap General Election was called, while 17% would vote for Reform UK, 11% for the SNP, and 8% for the Tories. A further 7% would vote for Scottish Greens, 6% would back the LibDems and 4% would vote for “other”. This fragmentation of Labour's support could be indicative of broader discontent with the party's direction and leadership.

Meanwhile, 79% of voters who backed the SNP at the General Election say they would vote for the party again. The biggest shift is towards the Scottish Greens, with 12% of 2024 SNP voters saying they would back the party in a snap election, while 4% would back Labour, 3% Reform and 2% “other”. This trend highlights the SNP's ability to maintain a strong base while also allowing for the possibility of coalition-building with other progressive parties like the Greens.

Of those who didn’t vote in the 2024 General Election, 33% said they would back the SNP while a quarter (25%) said they would vote for Reform UK. This indicates that the SNP may be successfully appealing to a segment of the electorate that previously felt disenfranchised or disillusioned with the political process.

When broken down by region, the SNP’s highest support was in the Highlands with 36%, followed by Glasgow at 35%, and Central Scotland at 32%. This regional breakdown is important as it reflects the SNP's stronghold in areas that have historically favored nationalist policies, reinforcing their narrative of being the party that represents Scottish interests.

In response to our poll, an SNP spokesperson said: "The poll is confirmation of the strong support for the SNP under John Swinney's leadership and another confirmation that the SNP remains the only political party Scots trust to stand up for Scotland and advance the cause of independence. The only group of people who will be surprised by the continuing collapse of the Labour Party in Scotland will probably be themselves – the arrogance and total lack of self-reflection they have shown since their massive Holyrood defeat has become more evident by the day. Anas Sarwar has swanned off to the House of Lords and the rest of Scottish Labour are now completely consumed by their own civil war. For as long as Scottish Labour refuse to engage with the reasons for their defeats and decline, they will continue to be punished at the ballot box – you cannot deny democracy to Scotland and expect the trust of our people. Only the SNP will stand up for Scotland at each and every turn, including on our right to decide our own future – we answer to the people of Scotland while the Labour Party in Scotland will always answer to Westminster."

The SNP's assertion that they are the only party that truly represents Scottish interests is a potent message, especially in light of the polling data that suggests a significant portion of the electorate is dissatisfied with Labour's current trajectory. The SNP has effectively positioned itself as the champion of Scottish independence, which resonates with a growing segment of the population that feels a strong national identity and a desire for self-determination.

We told how polling found that almost half of Scots would back the Scottish Government declaring independence without a referendum or Westminster’s permission. With don’t know’s excluded, 45% of voters said they would either strongly or somewhat support the Scottish Government "unilaterally declaring independence from the UK”, while 55% would oppose the move. This statistic is particularly striking as it indicates a significant shift in public sentiment towards independence, suggesting that the SNP's messaging is gaining traction among the electorate. It raises questions about the future of Scotland's relationship with the UK and the potential for a new independence movement that could reshape the political landscape in Scotland.

As the political climate continues to evolve, the implications of these polling results are profound. The SNP's potential for a majority in Westminster could embolden their calls for independence and further challenge the UK government’s authority over Scottish affairs. Conversely, Labour's decline in Scotland raises concerns about the party's long-term strategy and its ability to reconnect with Scottish voters. The outcome of any future elections will not only determine the political landscape in Scotland but may also have significant consequences for the broader UK political framework, especially regarding the ongoing debates around devolution, independence, and national identity.