Law and Justice Party Splits Ahead of 2027 Elections, Weakening Conservative Camp

London, United Kingdom Jul 24, 2026 ALN: The nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party that ruled Poland from 2015 to 2023 split on Friday in a political rupture that undermines the conservative camp’s attempts to topple pro-EU Prime Minister Donald Tusk in an election next year.

The Law and Justice party, which has been a dominant force in Polish politics for nearly a decade, has faced increasing challenges in maintaining its unity and voter support. After the victory of conservative Karol Nawrocki in the presidential election of May 2025, PiS had hoped to build momentum toward a return to government in 2027. However, this prospect raised alarm in Brussels, given PiS’s long track record of confrontation with the EU over issues such as the rule of law, media freedom, and LGBTQ+ rights.

Since last fall, PiS has been weakening in the polls, showing signs of internal strife and a growing divide between its leadership and various factions within the party. The rift has been exacerbated by a battle over the party's political trajectory and succession, primarily between the iron-fisted party leader Jarosław Kaczyński and former Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki. This clash of political ideologies and strategies has culminated in the recent split, which could have significant implications for the future of the conservative camp in Poland.

The internal conflict reached a boiling point on Friday when Kaczyński expelled Morawiecki and approximately three dozen MPs for refusing to abandon an internal grouping in PiS that has been widely seen as Morawiecki’s attempt to build his own splinter party. Kaczyński announced the expulsion after a midnight deadline he had given Morawiecki and his group to sign loyalty declarations, which many saw as an ultimatum to conform to his vision for the party.

“Everyone knew what they were supposed to sign and at the same time everyone knew what the consequences of not signing were. And so they made the decision they made,” Kaczyński told a press briefing at PiS’s headquarters in Warsaw. This statement underscores Kaczyński's determination to maintain control over the party and its direction, even at the cost of losing prominent members.

Morawiecki’s allies are now expected to establish a separate caucus in the Polish parliament, the 460-seat Sejm. The departure of Morawiecki’s followers is anticipated to reduce PiS’s parliamentary contingent to around 140-145 seats, making it the second-biggest caucus after Tusk’s Civic Coalition. This shift in parliamentary dynamics could significantly alter the landscape of Polish politics as the country approaches the 2027 elections.

While PiS was ahead of Civic Coalition in polls last fall, support has now dropped to 26 percent, according to the Poll of Polls, placing it behind the Civic Coalition's 32 percent. This decline in support is likely to be exacerbated by the recent split, as conservative and nationalist voters will now be divided among Kaczyński’s party, two far-right formations, and Morawiecki’s group, which is perceived as the most moderate of the factions.

The immediate confrontation inside PiS began on July 15, when the leadership ordered members to leave associations conducting political activity and submit declarations by midnight July 23. Members who refused faced expulsion. In the days leading up to the deadline, Morawiecki and his supporters assured media that their future lay within PiS and that their goal was to broaden the party’s appeal to voters outside the core radical right-wing demographic. This attempt to moderate the party’s image reflects a strategic pivot that Morawiecki believed was necessary for electoral success.

Kaczyński selected hardline former Education Minister Przemysław Czarnek as the party’s candidate for prime minister in March, effectively sidelining Morawiecki and his strategy of rebuilding support among centrist and business-oriented voters. This decision highlighted the ideological divide within the party and the contrasting visions for its future.

In mid-April, Morawiecki created his association, known as Rozwój Plus (Development Plus), which he presented as a platform for economic, technological, and demographic policy rather than a future party. This initiative was seen as a direct challenge to Kaczyński’s leadership and an indication of Morawiecki’s desire to carve out a new political identity separate from PiS’s traditional base.

Despite a temporary compromise announced on April 21, under which Rozwój Plus would operate through a new PiS expert council, Morawiecki went on to formally register the association in May, further solidifying his break from the party’s traditional structure. His efforts to create a more inclusive political platform reflect a recognition of the changing political landscape in Poland and the need to appeal to a broader electorate.

Morawiecki also chairs the European Conservatives and Reformists Party, positioning himself as a key player in European politics. A splashy Rozwój Plus gathering, featuring discussion panels and policy speeches, is planned for July 31 in Warsaw, where Morawiecki aims to galvanize support for his vision and potentially attract disaffected voters from both the right and the center.

Paweł Jabłoński, a Morawiecki ally and former deputy foreign minister who met Kaczyński this week in a failed attempt to negotiate a compromise, expressed regret over the split but emphasized that the common adversary remains Tusk. “I regret that it came to this, that we were thrown out. It’s not that anyone resigned from anything. We were simply thrown out of the party for trying to broaden it,” he stated, highlighting the deep divisions within PiS and the challenges that lie ahead for the conservative camp.

“Collapse, rupture — that may be too big a word. It’s a division that the party leadership chose,” he added. “In my view, the political opponent is still Donald Tusk and his government.” This sentiment reflects the ongoing struggle within the conservative camp to unify against a common political foe, even as internal disputes threaten to undermine their electoral prospects.

The implications of this split are profound, not only for the future of the Law and Justice party but also for the broader political landscape in Poland. As the 2027 elections approach, the division within the conservative camp could create opportunities for the Civic Coalition and other opposition parties to capitalize on the disarray among their rivals. Moreover, the emergence of Morawiecki’s faction may introduce new dynamics into Polish politics, particularly if he can effectively appeal to centrist voters and those disillusioned with the current political status quo.

As Poland navigates this period of uncertainty, the actions and strategies of both Kaczyński and Morawiecki will be closely scrutinized. The outcomes of their respective campaigns and the ability to mobilize support will play a crucial role in shaping the future direction of Polish politics and its relationship with the European Union. The coming months will be pivotal as both factions seek to redefine their identities and strategies in a rapidly changing political environment.