In a significant political shift, Barisan Nasional (BN) has won a landslide victory in the Johor state elections, while Pakatan Harapan (PH) faces notable setbacks.
Singapore, Singapore Jul 12, 2026 ALN: KUALA LUMPUR – A victorious Onn Hafiz Ghazi was sworn in for a second term as Johor’s chief minister on July 12, just hours after the Election Commission declared a landslide win for the UMNO-led Barisan Nasional (BN) in the southernmost state. This moment marked a significant political development in Malaysia, as it highlighted the shifting dynamics of power within the country's political landscape.
At one of the most anticipated state elections in recent Malaysian history, BN won 48 seats, meaning six of every seven assemblymen in the 56-strong legislature will hail from the long-ruling coalition. This overwhelming majority underscores the enduring influence of BN, particularly in Johor, which has historically been a stronghold for the coalition. The results reflect not only the preferences of Johoreans but also broader trends within Malaysian politics.
Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s Pakatan Harapan (PH) will make up the rest of the numbers after dropping from 12 to just eight seats. This decline in representation for PH is noteworthy, especially considering the coalition's aspirations to solidify its position following the 2022 general elections. The outcome of this state election serves as a critical indicator of public sentiment and political allegiances in Malaysia.
This is the first vote since the November 2022 general election where PH and BN have openly clashed, marking the end of their electoral pact whereby only one candidate from either coalition contests a seat, usually with the backing of the other during the campaign. The dissolution of this electoral alliance signifies a pivotal moment in Malaysian politics, as it reflects the tensions and rivalries that have emerged since the formation of the unity government.
The pact had been in place since the so-called unity government of the former rivals was formed after Malaysia’s first-ever hung Parliament, and PH’s disappointing outing will be food for thought for Anwar, who must ensure his alliance bounces back by the time he calls a general election due by early 2028. The implications of this election will resonate as Anwar grapples with the challenges of rebuilding support and addressing the concerns of voters who may feel disillusioned by the coalition's performance.
Johor’s demography closely mirrors that of Peninsular Malaysia as a whole, which is home to 165 of the nation’s 222 parliamentary seats. This demographic similarity makes the results in Johor particularly significant, as they may foreshadow trends that could emerge in future national elections. The Straits Times looks at winners and losers after nearly two million Johoreans cast their ballots.
Let’s start with the obvious. BN was already in command of a two-thirds supermajority before the state assembly was dissolved in June. Despite not much headroom for improvement, it managed to secure a significant 20 percent jump from 40 to 48 seats. This increase is indicative of a resurgence in voter confidence in BN, particularly in the context of Johor's political landscape.
More importantly, BN also nearly doubled its tally of votes to 1.1 million, from fewer than 600,000 in March 2022. This surge in voter turnout is a critical indicator of BN's revitalization efforts, suggesting that the coalition has managed to engage a broader segment of the electorate. The 600,000 tally – give or take a few thousand – has been consistent since 2018 when UMNO lost both state and federal power for the first time in history, marking a significant shift in the political landscape.
Having failed to entrench itself among new cohorts of voters who have typically been fence-sitters, the Johor result offers the first signs that UMNO is finally on the rebound. This resurgence is vital for BN as it seeks to reestablish its dominance in Malaysian politics, particularly in the face of challenges posed by rival coalitions.
While the stains of graft have not been completely washed away, BN’s track record of being capable administrators has likely gained traction with an electorate that consistently cites cost of living and job opportunities as its top concerns in various opinion polls. Addressing these pressing issues has become a cornerstone of BN's strategy to regain public trust and support.
Nonetheless, BN’s haul can also be attributed to external factors such as disappointment with Anwar’s PH. But perhaps the most significant development was Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS) – which has more elected representatives than any other party – telling its supporters to back BN in the 23 seats that the opposition Perikatan Nasional (PN) coalition was not contesting. This strategic alliance between PAS and BN reflects a broader trend of political realignment among Malay-Muslim parties in Malaysia.
The move was framed by the Islamist party as a strategy to defend Malay political power. PAS framed PH as a threat to the Malay-Muslim majority: the secular Chinese-dominated Democratic Action Party (DAP) contributes half of the three-member ruling coalition’s MPs. This narrative has resonated with a significant portion of the electorate, reinforcing the perception of a need for unity among Malay parties to safeguard their interests.
A significant faction in PAS and UMNO – as well as pro-Malay and Islamic interest groups – believe that the community must unite politically. For them, the Johor result is proof that the combined support for the two main Malay-Muslim nationalist parties can ensure victory against PH. This coalition-building among Malay parties may have lasting implications for Malaysia's political dynamics, particularly as the nation approaches future elections.
No other royal family has as much say over the running of their state as Johor’s. While it has waded into politics before – famously asking Malaysians not to abandon BN in 2018 – this is the first time it actively stumped for a party. The role of the Johor royal family in the election reflects the unique political landscape of the state, where royal influence remains a significant factor in public opinion.
Regent Ismail Ibrahim made headlines just weeks before the July 11 vote by going after BN’s opponents, including Anwar. The palace has been muted following an online backlash against Ismail, who is Crown Prince and Sultan Ibrahim Iskandar’s son. However, the fact that most Johoreans still picked BN goes to show that royal activism, at least in the southernmost state, is increasingly normalized. This phenomenon raises questions about the intersection of traditional authority and modern political dynamics in Malaysia.
PH’s election strategists may claim that the coalition increased its vote share compared to the 2022 edition. But one-third of the 1.8 million ballots cast is still a smaller share than the 42 percent garnered in Johor at the general election in November the same year. This decline in voter support is a concerning trend for PH, as it suggests that the coalition has not effectively addressed the concerns of its base or has failed to inspire confidence among undecided voters.
Tellingly, the constituencies that had the lowest turnouts were those where PH was the incumbent, indicating that many of its supporters boycotted the vote in protest. This lack of engagement from core supporters is a troubling sign for PH, as it suggests a growing disillusionment with the coalition's performance and messaging.
It continues a negative trend since 2023 – when six states went to the polls – that deepened in Sabah in 2025. In that poll, PH won just one of the 73 seats at stake. The challenges facing PH are multifaceted, as they must contend with internal divisions, external pressures from rival coalitions, and the need to articulate a compelling vision for the future.
Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) president Anwar and his allies need to do something to change their fortunes and do it quickly. A general election must be held by February 2028, giving them one-and-a-half years to reverse the damage done over more than twice that timespan. The urgency of the situation is palpable, as Anwar's leadership will be tested in the coming months as he seeks to rebuild support and regain the confidence of voters.
This was supposed to be the window of opportunity for smaller parties to emerge as an alternative to the three main coalitions, which have struggled with infighting and grassroots disenchantment. However, the debut of Parti Bersama Malaya and MUDA failed to gain traction, and Bersatu lost all contested seats. The inability of these smaller parties to capitalize on the dissatisfaction with the major coalitions raises questions about the viability of a fourth political force in Malaysia.
As the political landscape continues to evolve, the implications of the Johor elections extend beyond the immediate results. The election serves as a bellwether for future political contests, highlighting the importance of coalition-building, voter engagement, and the need for parties to adapt to the changing preferences of the electorate. With the next general election looming, the lessons learned from Johor will undoubtedly shape the strategies and approaches of all political actors in Malaysia.
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