Ulster University Predicts Northern Ireland to Surpass One Million Jobs by 2032

London, United Kingdom Jul 21, 2026 ALN: The north of Ireland is on a trajectory to exceed one million jobs in the workforce by the year 2032, according to new research published by Ulster University. This projection comes from the university’s Economic Policy Centre (EPC), which has conducted an extensive analysis of the region's labor market dynamics and economic trends.

In recent years, Northern Ireland's labor market has shown remarkable resilience and growth, particularly when compared to the broader context of the United Kingdom. While many regions across Britain have experienced a contraction in employment, Northern Ireland has recorded the fastest annual growth in workforce jobs of any UK region during the period spanning the first quarter of 2025 to the first quarter of 2026.

One of the key factors contributing to this positive trend is the performance of Northern Ireland's retail sector. Unlike much of Britain, where the retail industry has been significantly impacted by the rise of online shopping and other structural changes, Northern Ireland has managed to sustain growth in this sector. This resilience can be attributed to a combination of local consumer behavior, business adaptability, and perhaps a slower rate of digital transformation in retail compared to other regions.

Despite the current positive indicators, economists at Ulster University caution that the sustained growth in retail jobs may not be a long-term trend. Myles Patton, a principal economist at the university, has indicated that the effects of changing retail dynamics, particularly those driven by online shopping, are likely to eventually permeate the Northern Ireland market as well.

In terms of overall economic growth, the EPC forecasts that Northern Ireland's economy will expand by approximately 1.6% in gross value added (GVA) terms this year and next. This growth rate is projected to rise slightly to 1.7% by the year 2028. In contrast, the UK economy is expected to grow at a slower pace, with forecasts indicating a growth of just 1% this year, climbing to 1.6% by 2029. This disparity suggests that Northern Ireland may be able to capitalize on certain economic opportunities that the rest of the UK is currently missing.

Dr. Patton has highlighted the resilience of the Northern Ireland economy despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, which have historically posed challenges to economic stability in the region. This resilience is largely underpinned by the strength of the labor market, which has seen significant contributions from both the public and private sectors.

In the past decade, Ulster University’s research indicates that approximately 107,000 jobs have been added across Northern Ireland between 2015 and 2025. Notably, the health and education sectors have been significant contributors, accounting for roughly one-third of the total job growth. Additionally, the manufacturing sector added around 11,000 jobs during this period, while the ‘professional and scientific’ sector contributed approximately 15,000 new positions.

Looking ahead, the EPC anticipates a baseline of 63,000 jobs to be created in the ten years leading up to 2035. However, this figure could increase to as many as 89,000 jobs depending on the overall performance of the economy. The construction sector, in particular, could see a boost of up to 12,000 jobs if major infrastructure projects are successfully implemented as planned.

Healthcare, a critical component of the Northern Ireland economy, is expected to remain a major driver of job growth. However, recent findings from the university have raised concerns regarding the high turnover rates among staff within the health and social care system. The research estimates that the financial burden associated with the loss of social workers could reach around £7 million in the fiscal year 2024/25. This figure accounts for the costs related to hiring new staff, training, and the productivity losses that occur while vacancies remain unfilled.

Furthermore, the research indicates that if the turnover rate of social workers could be reduced by just 20%, it could potentially save the region £1.43 million, which could be redirected to fund 42 additional band 5/6 social workers. This finding underscores the importance of investing in employee wellbeing, professional development, and effective workforce planning as strategies to enhance both financial and social outcomes in the health sector.

In addition to the findings related to job growth and turnover in healthcare, the university's research also delves into the relationship between productivity growth and employment levels. Contrary to the traditional view that higher productivity leads to fewer jobs, the research suggests a more nuanced relationship. While productivity improvements can indeed reduce labor demand in certain sectors, they also create positive spillover effects that can stimulate job creation in other areas of the economy.

Dr. Patton elaborated on this point, stating that productivity growth is often associated with job reallocation across different sectors rather than widespread job losses. This highlights the growing importance of skills development and workforce adaptability, particularly in the context of advancing technologies such as artificial intelligence. As these technologies continue to evolve, the workforce will need to adapt in order to meet new demands and capitalize on emerging opportunities.

Overall, the outlook for Northern Ireland's labor market appears optimistic, with significant potential for job creation across various sectors. However, it is crucial for policymakers, businesses, and educational institutions to work collaboratively to ensure that the workforce is equipped with the necessary skills and support to thrive in a changing economic landscape. By investing in human capital and addressing challenges such as high turnover rates in critical sectors like healthcare, Northern Ireland can position itself for sustained economic growth and stability in the years to come.