Your mobile bills may go up by another 12-15% soon

New Delhi, India Jul 6, 2026 ALN: New Delhi: India's telecom industry could see another 12-15 percent tariff hike over the next three to four months as the pricing environment has become more favorable following market consolidation, according to a Centrum Institutional Research Q1FY27 telecom and internet sector preview report.

"The pricing environment has become more favorable with only 3+1 players, and we expect another 12-15% tariff hike over the next 3 to 4 months," the brokerage stated in its report. This anticipated increase in tariffs follows a series of adjustments in pricing strategies by major telecom operators in the country, reflecting a trend towards higher revenue generation amidst a competitive landscape.

Talking about the financial performance of the telecom sector, the report indicated that the three private telecom operators are expected to report a 1-1.5 percent quarter-on-quarter increase in Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) in the June quarter. This increase is driven by the migration of customers from 2G to 4G and 5G networks, postpaid customer additions, and a higher number of days during the quarter. The transition from older technologies to more advanced networks is a significant factor in the evolving telecom landscape, as consumers increasingly demand faster and more reliable services.

Centrum noted that Bharti Airtel and Reliance Jio are expected to continue gaining market share at the expense of Vodafone Idea. Reliance Jio is projected to add approximately 7 million customers quarter-on-quarter, while Bharti Airtel is expected to add around 5 million customers during the same period. In contrast, Vodafone Idea is anticipated to add only about 0.2 million customers. This disparity in customer acquisition underscores the competitive dynamics at play, as Jio and Airtel leverage their extensive network infrastructure and innovative service offerings to attract new users.

The report also highlighted that data usage per customer is expected to remain strong as 4G and 5G penetration continues to increase across the country. "Data usage per customer would remain robust, led by growing penetration of 4G/5G networks. Reliance Jio and Airtel have covered over 90% of districts with 5G services, focusing on adding more 5G devices to their network," the report stated. This surge in data consumption is indicative of changing consumer behavior, with an increasing reliance on mobile data for various applications, including streaming services, online gaming, and remote work.

Furthermore, Vodafone Idea is expanding its 5G footprint, with its 5G network currently present in around 100 cities as it ramps up its coverage. The report also noted that Vodafone Idea's adjusted gross revenue (AGR) dues have significantly reduced, stating, "AGR dues liability has significantly come down for VIL to Rs 25,000 crore as present value of future AGR payment obligations." The reduction in AGR liabilities is a positive development for Vodafone Idea, which has faced financial challenges in recent years, allowing it to focus on network expansion and customer retention strategies.

The implications of these developments are significant for consumers and the broader economy. A tariff hike of 12-15% could lead to increased costs for mobile services, affecting millions of users across India. This potential increase comes at a time when many consumers are already grappling with rising costs in other areas of their lives, making the telecom sector's pricing strategies particularly noteworthy. As telecom companies adjust their pricing, the affordability of mobile services could become a contentious issue, especially among lower-income consumers who depend heavily on mobile connectivity for essential services.

The ongoing consolidation in the market appears to favor established players, and the shift towards advanced network technologies like 5G is expected to drive revenue growth. This consolidation has led to a more concentrated market, where a few dominant players control the majority of the user base. While this can lead to improved network investments and service quality, it also raises concerns about competition and consumer choice. Regulatory bodies may need to monitor these trends closely to ensure that consumers are not adversely affected by the lack of competition.

The Indian telecom market has undergone significant changes over the past few years, driven by technological advancements, regulatory changes, and evolving consumer preferences. The entry of Reliance Jio in 2016 disrupted the market, leading to aggressive pricing strategies and a race to provide better services. This disruption has resulted in the exit of several smaller players and a shift in market dynamics, with the remaining operators focusing on enhancing their service offerings and expanding their network coverage. The competitive landscape has evolved, with a few key players emerging as leaders while others struggle to keep pace.

As the telecom sector continues to evolve, the focus on 5G technology is becoming increasingly prominent. The rollout of 5G services is expected to unlock new opportunities for various sectors, including healthcare, education, and entertainment. With higher data speeds and lower latency, 5G technology has the potential to revolutionize how consumers interact with technology and access information. However, the successful implementation of 5G will require substantial investments in infrastructure and a commitment from telecom operators to provide quality service. The ability of telecom companies to upgrade their networks and offer competitive pricing will be crucial in determining their long-term viability in this rapidly changing environment.

In addition to the technical advancements, consumer behavior is also shifting. As more people work remotely and rely on digital services for daily tasks, the demand for reliable and high-speed internet connections is at an all-time high. This trend is likely to continue as the world becomes increasingly digital. Companies that can adapt to these changes and meet consumer demands will likely thrive, while those that cannot may find themselves struggling to maintain their market position.

Furthermore, the implications of tariff hikes extend beyond individual consumers. Businesses that rely on mobile services for operations may also face increased costs, which could impact their pricing strategies and overall profitability. This could lead to a ripple effect throughout the economy, as businesses pass on these costs to consumers. The need for affordable telecommunications services is essential for fostering growth and innovation, particularly in a country like India, where a large portion of the population is still transitioning to digital services.

In summary, the telecom sector is poised for a significant tariff increase, which could impact consumers in the coming months. The ongoing consolidation in the market appears to favor established players, and the shift towards advanced network technologies like 5G is expected to drive revenue growth. As consumers brace for potential price hikes, the future of the telecom industry will likely hinge on how companies balance profitability with the need to provide affordable and high-quality services to their users. The decisions made by telecom companies in the coming months will be critical in shaping the landscape of the industry and determining the accessibility of mobile services for all segments of the population.