India's semiconductor production is projected to increase significantly by 2030, while overall technology sovereignty improves only slightly, according to Forrester.
New Delhi, India Jul 30, 2026 ALN: India’s semiconductor chip production score is forecast to rise from 0% in 2025 to 13% by 2030, reflecting growing momentum around the country’s semiconductor ambitions, said Forrester, a Massachusetts-based research and advisory firm. This projection is significant as it highlights India's strategic efforts to bolster its position in the global semiconductor supply chain, which has become increasingly vital for technological advancement and economic security.
Semiconductors are essential components in a wide range of electronic devices, from smartphones and computers to advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI), the Internet of Things (IoT), and autonomous vehicles. The global semiconductor market has been experiencing rapid growth, driven by the increasing demand for electronic products and the ongoing digital transformation across various industries. In this context, India's aspiration to capture a larger share of semiconductor production is not only a matter of economic opportunity but also a strategic necessity.
However, Forrester also indicated that India’s overall technology sovereignty score is expected to improve only modestly, from 32% in 2025 to 35% by 2030. This modest increase underscores the complexity of achieving broader technology autonomy, which requires sustained investment across multiple sectors, including artificial intelligence (AI), cloud computing, data center capacity, software development, talent acquisition, and the establishment of strategic partnerships.
The challenge for India lies in the multifaceted nature of technology sovereignty. While increasing semiconductor production is a crucial step, true technological independence involves a holistic approach that encompasses various aspects of technology development and deployment. For midsize and emerging technology powers such as India, the path forward will depend less on full self-sufficiency and more on targeted investments, open technologies, alliances, and durable public-private partnerships. This approach acknowledges the interconnectedness of the global technology ecosystem and the need for collaboration to achieve sustainable growth.
In the broader context, the Global Sovereignty Forecast released by Forrester indicates that globally, technology sovereignty will remain difficult to achieve. The average technology sovereignty score across the 14 countries assessed (Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Mexico, South Korea, Spain, the UK, and the US) will rise only minimally, from 39% in 2025 to 40% in 2030. This stagnation reflects the persistent challenges that countries face in developing and securing critical technologies independently, particularly in the face of geopolitical tensions and supply chain vulnerabilities.
China and the United States are expected to continue leading with the highest overall tech sovereignty scores, according to Forrester's forecast. Both countries have made substantial investments in technology infrastructure, research and development, and talent cultivation, allowing them to maintain their competitive edge in the global technology landscape. Their dominance in technology sovereignty underscores the concentration of technological power among a small number of geopolitical and economic players, which may have implications for global trade, security, and innovation.
Forrester’s maiden forecast on global tech sovereignty measured a country’s ability to develop, operate, and secure critical technologies independently to reduce exposure to geopolitical risks. The index assessed each country across nine dimensions of technology sovereignty: government AI investment, cloud sovereignty, technology workforce availability, AI model development, data center capacity relative to technology spending, data center autonomy, semiconductor production, software creation, and rare earths processing. These dimensions provide a comprehensive framework for understanding the various factors that contribute to a country’s technological capabilities and independence.
The emphasis on semiconductor production is particularly relevant in light of recent global supply chain disruptions. The COVID-19 pandemic exposed vulnerabilities in the semiconductor supply chain, leading to shortages that affected numerous industries, including automotive and consumer electronics. In response to these challenges, countries have been reevaluating their semiconductor strategies, with many seeking to establish domestic production capabilities to mitigate risks associated with reliance on foreign suppliers.
India’s government has recognized the importance of the semiconductor industry and has launched initiatives aimed at attracting investment and fostering innovation in this sector. The government’s efforts include financial incentives for semiconductor manufacturing, collaboration with global technology firms, and the establishment of research and development centers. These initiatives are designed to create a conducive environment for the growth of the semiconductor ecosystem in India, which could lead to job creation, technological advancement, and increased competitiveness in the global market.
Moreover, the semiconductor sector is seen as a critical enabler for India’s broader technological ambitions, including the development of AI, 5G, and smart manufacturing. By enhancing its semiconductor production capabilities, India aims to position itself as a key player in the global technology landscape, capable of contributing to and benefiting from the ongoing technological revolution.
As India strives to increase its semiconductor production score to 13% by 2030, the implications of this growth will extend beyond economic metrics. It will influence India’s strategic autonomy, its role in global supply chains, and its capacity to innovate in emerging technologies. The country's ability to navigate the complexities of technology sovereignty will be pivotal in determining its future as a technological powerhouse.
In conclusion, while the forecasted increase in India’s semiconductor production is a positive development, it is essential to recognize that achieving true technology sovereignty involves a multifaceted approach that encompasses investment, collaboration, and strategic planning. As India embarks on this journey, the lessons learned from global trends and the experiences of other countries will be invaluable in shaping its path forward in the semiconductor industry and beyond.
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